"Managing Sustainability - Hopes for 2013 and Beyond"

Link to 2degrees web site

"Alvin Toffler published 'Future Shock' in 1970, at a time of great social and economic upheaval. Toffler sought to help people make sense of what was going on around them, when many felt overwhelmed, and to help society avoid the risk of what he called 'massive adaptational breakdown'.

"His call resonates strongly today – even if the contributory factors are somewhat different – as we move towards our own perfect storm, at the intersection of climate change, a looming energy crisis, increasing resource scarcity, and economic re-structuring.

"The future looks a lot less secure, and there are few good road maps, [but those include:]

• The end of growth
  

  We have reached the end of growth in the conventional sense, economically as well as ecologically. We will see a greater emphasis on wellbeing, values, shared wealth, and a different type of internal growth – not just through eco-efficient productivity gains, but also the circular economy, the sharing economy, and good old make-do-and-mend. And we will ultimately spend more money on people, and less on stuff and waste – from waste-to-wages.

• The end of mass consumerism
  

  Our economies will be based on real needs, rather than expensive and insatiable wants. We already know that consumerism is an empty pursuit, but we experience the lag of habit, until the twin drivers of necessity and seeing a better way, enable our awakening. People will be much more discerning, in terms of what they really need, where they get it from, and the means of exchange.

• The end of peak retail
  

  Even with recent shift towards online retailing, consumer spend and culture will decline. And the online phase will also come to pass, as logistics costs rise – although we will ultimately see a re-emergence of the high street, based on resilient communities, real local demand, locally met. Could humble Totnes show us the way?

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Link to nef web site (2010 publication)

"As economist Herman Daly once commented, he would accept the possibility of infinite growth in the economy on the day that one of his economist colleagues could demonstrate that Earth itself could grow at a commensurate rate.

"Whether or not the stumbling international negotiations on climate change improve, our findings make clear that much more will be needed than simply more ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This report concludes that a new macro economic model is needed, one that allows the human population as a whole to thrive without having to relying on ultimately impossible, endless increases in consumption."

"If you spend your time thinking that the most important objective of public policy is to get growth up from 1.9 per cent to 2 per cent, and even better 2.1 per cent, we’re pursuing a sort of false god there.

We’re pursuing it first of all because if we accept that, we will do things to the climate that will be harmful, but also because all the evidence shows that beyond the sort of standard of living, which Britain has now achieved, extra growth does not automatically translate into human welfare and happiness."

Lord Adair Turner
Chair of the UK Financial Services Authority

"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever, in a finite world, is either a madman or an economist."

Kenneth E. Boulding
Economist and co-founder of General Systems Theory